THE ODDS OF A MACHINE DOING YOUR JOB

figure
5/1
11/4
1/7
100/1
5/2

Do you drive, receive snail mail, dine out or go to the gym?

THE ODDS OF…

At the current rate of technological change, jobs
tomorrow will look dramatically different to jobs today.

Is your job secure from technology?

A HISTORY OF
HUMANS MACHINE

Machines have been replacing human labour since the Industrial Revolution.

1901
The assembly line is patented by Ransom Olds. It allows his car manufacturing plant to increase output by 500% within a year.
1921
The word ‘robot’ is coined by writer Josef Čapek, from the Czech word ‘robota’ meaning forced labour.
1961
General Motors installs a robotic arm to assist in the assembly line.
1992
First self-service checkout system is installed at Price Chopper Supermarket, New York.
2014
Foxconn, China's largest private employer, replaces 1 million workers with robots.
2013
Amazon begins using robots in its fulfilment centres, improving efficiency by 20%.

The future of automation

According to a report by Deloitte, in the next 20 years:

0%

of existing UK jobs are at high risk of replacement

Lower-paid jobs ( <£30,000) are

5x more likely to be REPLACED

than higher paid roles (£100,000)

  • 1

    Automation

  • figure
    2

    Nearshoring

  • figure
    3

    Offshoring

What does it mean for you?

A study by University of Oxford has calculated
which jobs are likely to be automated.

The report based the chances of automation
using an algorithm based on 9 variables:

  • Perception and
    manipulation
  • Creative
    intelligence
  • Social
    intelligence

Skills associated with high risk to computerisation

Finger dexterity

figure

Coordinated movement with fingers to hold or manipulate objects

Manual dexterity

figure

Quick movement of hands and arms to hold or assemble objects

Cramped work space*

figure

Small work area which requires worker to get into awkward positions

Skills associated with low risk to computerisation

Originality*

figure

Ability to come up with unusual, creative or clever ideas

Fine arts

figure

Knowledge of how to produce or perform music, visual art, etc.

Social perceptiveness

figure

Awareness and understanding of other’s reactions

Negotiation*

figure

Bringing people together to reconcile differences

Persuasion

figure

Able to persuade others to change their mind

Assisting and caring for others*

figure

Providing personal, medical or emotional assistance to others

How does your job rank?

Architectural and civil drafters Civil engineers Architects Interpreters and translators Actors Graphic designers Choereographers Tax preparers Accountants and auditors Financial analysts Computer programmers Statisticians Actuaries Database adminstrators Highway maintenance workers Carpenters Electricians Librarians College professors High school teachers Restaurant cooks Waiters and waitresses Bartenders Head chefs Optometrists Veterinarians Pharmacists Physicians and surgeons Paralegals and legal assistants Judges Lawyers Economists Chemists Astronomers Anthropologists and archeologists Financial managers Chief executives Education administrators Tellers Bookkeepers Postal service clerks Mail carriers Manicurists and pedicurists Barbers Concierges Childcare workers Jewelers metal workers Butchers and meat cutters Bakers Upholsterers Crossing guard Detectives and criminal investigators Police and sheriff's patrol officers Telemarketers Fashion model Cashiers Retail salespersons Bus driver Flight attendants Airline pilots Air traffic controllers 100 90 80 70 60 50
Architectural and civil drafters Civil engineers Architects Interpreters and translators Actors Graphic designers Choereographers Tax preparers Accountants and auditors Financial analysts Computer programmers Statisticians Actuaries Database adminstrators Highway maintenance workers Carpenters Electricians Librarians College professors High school teachers Restaurant cooks Waiters and waitresses Bartenders Head chefs Optometrists Veterinarians Pharmacists Physicians and surgeons Paralegals and legal assistants Judges Lawyers Economists Chemists Astronomers Anthropologists and archeologists Financial managers Chief executives Education administrators Tellers Bookkeepers Postal service clerks Mail carriers Manicurists and pedicurists Barbers Concierges Childcare workers Jewelers metal workers Butchers and meat cutters Bakers Upholsterers Crossing guard Detectives and criminal investigators Police and sheriff's patrol officers Telemarketers Fashion model Cashiers Retail salespersons Bus driver Flight attendants Airline pilots Air traffic controllers 100 90 80 70 60 50

Risk of automation

The researchers admit that these predictions are
open to a large margin of error. Their estimates
have not accounted for:

  • figure Future labour demand
  • figure Regulatory concerns
  • figure Pace of engineering advancement

Is this good or bad news?

Experts are split when it comes to the future of automation.

According to a Pew Research survey,

BY 2025:

  • figure
    0%

    of experts expect robots to have
    displaced significant numbers of
    blue- and white-collar workers

  • figure
    0%

    of experts expect
    technology will not displace
    more jobs than it creates

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
figure

Income inequality

figure

Masses of unemployable people

figure

Breakdown in social order

figure

New jobs and industries will
replace those now done by robots

figure

Automation will free up time for
people to focus on the creative
and original aspects of their job